Bookmarks: 5 Interesting Articles That May Help You This Week

February 19th, 2018

Each week, I select a few articles that rise above the fray and hopefully help you on your journey in the CRE world. They pull from one of four "corners:" corporate real estate, technology, management science and anything positive. I welcome your comments on these articles and the submissions of others (with credit to you if I post them). I wish you a terrific week! 

The Quiet Rise of the Downtown Tech Campus"This concentration in cities is fairly recent. For decades, the tech industry was associated with what Joel Kotkin famously dubbed “Nerdistans”—low-slung suburban office parks surrounded by oceans of parking. The notorious tech buses that shuttled urban-dwelling workers to and from these facilities in the Bay Area were an early indication that techies were no longer content to live in the suburbs. Increasingly, it appears that they’d rather not work there either." www.citylab.com

The WeWork Manifesto: First, Office Space. Next, the World."It can be tempting to dismiss WeWork as just another overvalued start-up that is high on its own rhetoric and flush with easy money from naïve investors. With little more than faddish interior design, free beer and an invitation to socialize with strangers, Mr. Neumann claims to have conjured up a whole new paradigm for white-collar workers — and for education — and vows that it can change the world." www.NYTimes.com

[tweet_box design="box_09" float="none"]Neumann claims to have conjured up a whole new paradigm for white-collar workers — and for education — and vows that it can change the world #cre[/tweet_box]

When Malls Saved the Suburbs From Despair"I can’t help but think that Americans’ days of hating the mall are numbered. When it gets replaced by Apple Town Squares, Walmart Supercenters, and the online-offline slurry of an ever-rising Amazon, we will miss these zoos of capitalism, these prisons of commerce, where consumerism roared and swelled but, inevitably, remained contained." www.theatlantic.com

[tweet_box design="box_09" float="none"]we will miss these zoos of capitalism, these prisons of commerce, where consumerism roared and swelled but, inevitably, remained contained #malls #cre[/tweet_box]

Google’s Guinea-Pig City“In October 2017, (Sidewalk Labs) announced its most ambitious project yet: transforming the underdeveloped Toronto waterfront into an affordable, eco-friendly smart neighborhood—a little model town to showcase Sidewalk’s innovative technologies and urbanist ideas. For the privilege, Sidewalk has committed $50 million to a year-long, joint-planning process with Waterfront Toronto, an urban-development corporation." www.theatlantic.com

After 7 Months of Working from Home, I Discovered a Productivity Hack that Keeps Me Focused All Day"It turns out scenery changes may also boost productivity in traditional office settings. According to Ron Friedman, an organizational psychologist and the author of “The Best Place to Work: The Art and Science of Creating an Extraordinary Workplace,” great companies design workspaces that “facilitate the work their employees do. No single environment is effective for every task, which is why more and more companies are creating hybrid spaces that offer employees a range of uses,” Friedman writes.

Indeed, companies like Etsy, Spotify, and Facebook, to name a few, offer in-office employees various comfortable, inspiring, and spacious communal and individual workspaces as alternatives to a desk." www.businessinsider.comYour success blesses others. I wish you a great a hugely impactful week!Ken 

Bookmarks: 5 Interesting Articles That May Help You This Week

February 12th, 2018

Each week, I select a few articles that rise above the fray and hopefully help you on your journey in the CRE world. They pull from one of four "corners:" corporate real estate, technology, management science and anything positive. I welcome your comments on these articles and the submissions of others (with credit to you if I post them). I wish you a terrific week! 

The Amazon-ification of Whole Foods"In the broader context of Amazon’s ambitions—to build an operating system for the home, to expand into pharmacies and health care, to become a hit-making television production studio—this is the logical next step in turning Prime into the ultimate “life bundle,” a single membership program to bind consumers to every possible commercial need. As Amazon extends into more product areas, it can own both the search platform and the product, so that when a dad says to the smart speaker on his counter, “Alexa, I need brown rice and pork,” the product that arrives is an Amazon-branded box containing Amazon–Whole Foods–branded rice and pork." www.theatlantic.com

How WeWork Has Perfectly Captured the Millennial Id"WeWork is the world’s leading co-working company and the sixth-most-valuable start-up, according to VentureSource. Last year it was valued at $20 billion, a staggering sum for a company renting out short-term office space, mostly to small businesses and freelancers. But like Uber and Airbnb, WeWork positions itself grandly, as a disruptive revolutionary. It promises to “humanize” work, making the office a more creative place, with the right lighting, the right snacks, and, crucially, the right people." www.theatlantic.com

[tweet_box design="box_09" float="none"]#WeWork promises to “humanize” #work, making the #office a more creative place, with the right lighting, the right snacks, and, crucially, the right people #cre[/tweet_box]

If You’re So Successful, Why Are You Still Working 70 Hours a Week?"Long hours are most common in managerial and professional occupations. This is something of a recent trend. In the old days, if you were a white-collar worker, the deal was that you worked as hard as you could at the start of your career to earn the right to be rewarded later on, with security of tenure and a series of increasingly senior positions. In professional organizations, such as law firms, accountancy firms, management consultancies, and investment banks, the prize was partnership. The competition was relentless, but once you won the prize, it was yours for keeps. Partners had autonomy to choose how and when to work and what to work on. Of course, some senior partners spent a surprising amount of their “business development time” on the golf course, but that was OK because they had already paid their dues to the organization." www.hbr.org

[tweet_box design="box_09" float="none"]Long hours are most common in managerial and professional occupations. This is something of a recent trend #cre[/tweet_box]

The False Choice Between Automation and Jobs“The catch is that adopting these technologies will disrupt the world of work. No less significant than the jobs that will be displaced are the jobs that will change—and those that will be created. New research by the McKinsey Global institute suggests that roughly 15% of the global workforce could be displaced by 2030 in a midpoint scenario, but that the jobs likely created will make up for those lost. There is an important proviso: that economies sustain high economic growth and dynamism, coupled with strong trends that will drive demand for work. Even so, between 75 million to 375 million people globally may need to switch occupational categories by 2030, depending on how quickly automation is adopted." www.hbr.com

Workplace Changes Are Accelerating: Why And What Millennials Should Do About It"Change is to be expected, unfolding at a constant rate as new generations replace old generations, and as old ideas become obsolete. But here’s the thing; in today’s world, change isn’t unfolding at a constant rate—it’s unfolding at a faster and faster rate. The rate of change in today’s workplace is accelerating, and if you aren’t prepared, it could dramatically impact your career." www.forbes.com

Your success blesses others. I wish you a great a hugely impactful week!Ken 

Office Party? Atlanta Market 2018 Forecast

2017 was a mighty fine year for Atlanta office real estate. Macro events such as tax law changes, a roaring stock markets, very healthy corporate profits and strong employment numbers helped corporate America have a pep in its collective step, and Atlanta was no exception.As I look deeply into my crystal ball and based on reading, and conversations with economists and market experts, I've begun to true up some predictions for 2018 in seven areas:DevelopmentThe goal in 2018 for corporate America in 2018 is employee engagement. Read another way, employers want you to want to come to the office. On the development side, this is dramatically impacting what architects are drawing and where building is occurring. Infill development will continue to thrive. Buildings will continue to strive to look “authentic,” like Hines’ T3 development which will consist of a 200,000 heavy timber frame and wood building planned at Atlantic Station. Authentic design can be achieved using the right materials or by retrofitting an older building – the organic approach to real estate.The Emergence of the City CenterMaybe the 1950's are coming back to life in reimagined small town America. Seven city center projects are proposed or under construction around metro Atlanta including the Braves Stadium know as the Battery, Avalon in Alpharetta, City Springs in the City of Sandy Springs,  Assembly in Doraville and others. People like working in a dense environment, but want to enjoy the cheaper housing and larger yards of the suburbs. Some have said the city center concept is the 21st century mall.Rental RatesNext year, rental rates on most classes will stop climbing as fast as they did in 2017 and concessions start to return in certain markets like Central Perimeter. I also believe there will be an uptick of subleases as growing companies are forced to move their operations in order to expand. There’s been an increase towards the end of 2017 and we believe there will be even more of this activity in 2018. The one exception to this forecast is newly delivered class A which is the hottest product in our city. Corporations with a pocket book will continue to drive rates in sexy new product to the highest our town has ever seen.Office Product TypesAs always, the market will continue to be a tale of the haves and the have nots. Rental rates notwithstanding, the haves will remain the most popular among tenants that can afford them and investors who pine for the latest and greatest. Take Three Alliance for example. The building experienced a rapid lease-up and has now traded for an historic price. Class B product with inefficient floorplates and lack of support amenities won’t experience near the rental rates of trophy Class A. Expect to see a trophy tower launch in an urban market with much more infill urban development/redevelopment. Finally, urban industrial product is becoming more attractive for redevelopment into creative loft office.Tenant DemandLast year, corporate America was catching its breath and approaching with caution because of uncertainty around administration, tax policy and the general business environment. However, with the Dow up 5,000 points in one year, which has never happened in history, the business economy is, and will remain, robust. I believe there will be continued organic growth and M&A activity in 2018. In board meetings and planning meetings, which are taking place right now, I believe businesses are planning for expansion in 2018. In 2017, many companies were a question mark, and that has turned into an exclamation point for 2018.Capital MarketsIn 2018, we anticipate cap rates will remain steady for suburban product. In the suburbs, there were misalligned expectations between sellers and buyers. Sellers forecasted continued rental rate increases, but buyers didn't agree.  One can anticipate further cap rate compression in high rise urban and "cool" infill product - where she stops, nobody knows.TechnologyNext year will also be the year that the "internet of things" (IOT) begins to have a real impact on commercial real estate. It will rapidly improve the operating efficiency of commercial real estate, and it will be interesting to see what sort of role it will play for building owners and managers, as well as tenants. Building systems will let us know when they need service and save on labor cost. Maybe they'll bring you coffee at 2 in the afternoon, too.I saw a beautiful sentence in the Wall Street Journal recently: "investors have abandoned defensive positions, throwing caution to the wind."  As you complete returning all those gifts back to Amazon, let's hope Santa is in a good mood all year in 2018. This economy is the gift that keeps on giving.Let's keep this ball rolling, shall we?

West Bound and Down - Twelve Days without an iPhone

I have a confession to make. For more than 17 years, I have been connected to the grid. Except for sleep, I was always tuned on. Yes, even on vacation, at night and certainly on weekends.I bet I’m not alone in this admission, but at least I can publically declare my addiction to connectivity. I was like a real estate Waffle House; always on and available. Some will say I was like their hash browns as well; scattered, smothered, covered and chopped – but that’s another story.But for 12 days in June, I had no iPhone, no computer, heck, not even a tin-can with a string. I accompanied my 15-year-old son Jonathan and his Boy Scout crew for a hiking expedition in the beautiful Sangre de Cristo Mountains of North Eastern New Mexico to Philmont Scout Ranch.I’m proud of the 93 miles we hiked, the trials we endured, and the trails we climbed. We had an amazing time overcoming the obstacles together and more than one mountain top experience. By the way, I know why they call it that – the whole mountain top thing - adrenaline and views over a 50 mile horizon are an awesome thing.Should it Stay or Should it iGo?I thought long and hard about this trip. I don’t mean what to pack on my back, although that got a lot of attention. I had a tough decision to make on my iConnectivity. Should I take my iPhone in my pack or leave it in base camp?Even in the wilds of New Mexico, one can get a signal at high altitudes. If I took it with me, I could make emergency calls, if need be. I’d have a compass, and plenty of eBooks to read in my tent at night. I could use the torrent of apps available for barometers, measure our distance covered, and perform all manner of important tasks. I could have a digital Swiss army knife (and yes, I could bring a solar charger to keep the thing going).Oh, and I could check email.I love my job, I love my clients, and my team had some very large transactions on the bubble. I really, really wanted to stay in the loop. I almost caved and brought the machine with me. There are SO many critical reasons to stay connected.I realized, though, that I would be bringing a Pandora’s box of information into God’s Country. I began to understand that, for me anyway, bringing an iPhone “back country” would be the same as taking a phone call in the middle of a sermon at church. I’d mar a great experience with my son, and wrap my head around work problems instead of seeing the world one step at a time through his eyes. That Swiss army knife would cut apart my experience with my son and the other Scouts.Radio SilenceBam! The base camp locker door closed and the deed was done. I’d have no access of any kind for 12 full days. We put on the packs and headed to the busses that would take us to where our trek would begin. I’m glad they didn’t take my blood pressure at that point.It had an immediate impact; and at first it was intensely negative. Uncertainty and doubt hit me. What had I done? What if I missed some major news item? I'm sure some client will need something urgently - probably right this moment! By the way, what do you do when you‘re waiting in line with nothing to occupy your time? Fortunately, there was no turning back on my information desert and I simply had to accept my decision.After a couple of days, I began to relax and get into the groove. And then it began to hit me: the power of full engagement in a task you care deeply about, with someone you love is an amazing experience. I learned to function without a device and I am a better man for it. My son and I had the time of our lives, and I am immensely thankful for our uninterrupted time together. He is too.What I LearnedAfter reflecting on this experience for almost two weeks, I learned that you can, that you must, unplug occasionally. Just a few weeks ago I would have (and did) scoff at the very idea. I am now a full on convert to strategic digital vacations. They clear the mind, cleanse the soul, and allow one to have rich and meaningful conversations with those close to you.

I have a great team behind me, and I’m thankful especially to Alysen Thompson for digitally backing me up. The piece of mind I got from Alysen, Sam Hollis, Sarah Momberg and Clint McKellar on my team was priceless. They brought me peace and confidence for 12 days at Philmont.

I also learned that the world goes on without you. This is a sobering thought, because we all believe that the rat race will come to an end without us involved. But it is a true and helpful perspective, at least for me, in the midst of our busy lives.

So, I am slowly reengaging in the digital world. I now have a newfound respect for the power of single tasking and focusing on the really important things in this life.

Hug your kids, your spouse or your pal this weekend and turn the machine off. Take it from me and my iSeperation: your digital audience will be there on Monday. Be present in the moment, and you will create memories and relationships that will last well beyond that silly text message. And on occasion, may I recommend that you simply take a hike!

Posted July 11th, 2012